Packers Grind Out Ugly 17-14 Win as Under Cashes Comfortably

The Packers escaped Raymond James Stadium with a 17-14 slog that looked exactly like the offensive trainwreck we predicted. DarkHorse's under 39.0 cashed with room to spare as 31 combined points came in well below the number, validating our read on two broken offenses.

This game was every bit the struggle we forecasted. Green Bay's Jordan Love continued his early-season funk, managing just enough to avoid disaster while the Packers' rushing attack remained invisible. Tampa Bay's backup quarterback Jalon Daniels showed flashes but couldn't sustain drives against a stout Green Bay defense that's been the team's only consistent unit.

The Bucs' passing game stayed grounded as expected—Daniels simply doesn't have Baker Mayfield's command of the offense, and it showed in critical third-down situations. Green Bay's offense wasn't much prettier, grinding out field position without explosive plays. Both offensive lines got bullied, leading to drive-killing sacks and negative plays that kept the scoreboard dormant.

We called both teams severely underperforming through three weeks, and Week 4 brought zero improvement. The market dropped this total from 39.5 to 39.0 but still didn't price in how thoroughly broken these offenses are. Sometimes the tape doesn't lie—and neither did our model. Ugly football, beautiful result for Under backers.