Pelicans 120, Jazz 113: New Orleans Covers -5.5 and Our Pick Cashes

The Pelicans beat Utah 120-113 at home, and that seven-point margin was enough to cover the -5.5 spread. Pelicans -5.5 is a HIT, and we'll happily take it.

The case going in was built on the numbers. New Orleans held the efficiency edge, 112.9 offensive rating against Utah's 104.1, plus the pace advantage, 108.0 possessions per game to 102.8. Utah arrived on a five-game losing streak, averaging 105.2 points during that stretch while allowing 118.0. Their road form was just as bad: 0-2, scoring only 100.0 per game away from home.

New Orleans had its own questions. Dejounte Murray and Yves Missi were out, but the Pelicans still came in on a three-game win streak and had been scoring 122.8 per game over their last five. Trey Murphy III (21.5 PPG in recent form) and Zion Williamson (21.3 PPG) carried the load we expected them to carry.

The result landed where we wanted. Utah could not get out of its road slump, and New Orleans did enough at home to clear the number. Sometimes the boring answer is the right one: the better team, at home, against a team that has been bleeding points for a week, covers. Next time someone tells you a double-digit favorite is a trap, remind them of Utah's road splits.