Rockets Survive 125-118, Our -15.5 Lean Misses

Houston 125, Utah 118. It's a win, but it didn't cover, and that's the only result that matters for our pick.

We had the Rockets at -15.5, and this game never got close to that number. Seven points is the margin, less than half of what we needed. Our case rested on Houston's edge in efficiency, with a 117.3 offensive rating against Utah's 103.9 and a 47.8 to 43.3 gap in field-goal percentage. Those numbers pointed toward a blowout. What we got was a game that stayed close enough to keep the spread honest.

The Jazz were supposed to be a sorry road team, 0-5 away from home and averaging a 15.2-point loss per game, playing a 4-in-7 stretch without Lauri Markkanen and Jaren Jackson Jr. Utah showed up anyway and hung around long enough to turn the final margin into a fight. The absences and the schedule were real, but they didn't produce the separation we projected.

Was the call wrong? We flagged the size of the number and Houston's cooler recent form as reasons to keep this a minimum-stake lean, and that caution was the right instinct. Still, the published pick was Rockets -15.5, and it missed. Own it, learn from the margin, and move on to the next slate.