Royals Can't Hang as Pirates Pummel Dobnak in 8-5 Rout

So much for that 2.73 ERA. Randy Dobnak got absolutely shelled at PNC Park as the Pirates crushed Kansas City 8-5, turning our Royals +1.5 pick into expensive wallpaper. The "true pitching favorite" narrative collapsed spectacularly—Pittsburgh tagged Dobnak early and often, while Paul Skenes, supposedly the inferior arm with his 3.78 ERA, did exactly what aces do: pitched well enough to win.

The Pirates' offense, which we pegged as "even" with Kansas City's, proved anything but even on this night. They jumped ahead and never looked back, building a cushion that made the Royals' late rally irrelevant. That 1.05 ERA advantage we leaned on? Turns out regular-season numbers don't mean squat when you can't locate your fastball. Pittsburgh's 6-4 recent form wasn't smoke and mirrors—it was a team finding its stride at home.

The market had this one right at -190. Sometimes the home favorite with momentum just wins, and wins decisively. Dobnak didn't give us a chance to sweat the run line; he gifted Pittsburgh the game early. The Royals needed their "pitching-superior underdog" to show up. He didn't. We missed, and it wasn't close. On to the next card.