Six goals, a 3-3 draw, and our under 4.5 never stood a chance

Six goals, one point apiece, and our under 4.5 got buried. Charlotte FC and Inter Miami CF played to a 3-3 draw, the total cleared the number comfortably, and the Paddock Report's call on this one is a clean miss.

The reasoning going in blended venue-adjusted expected goals with season scoring averages and projected roughly 3.7 to 3.9 total goals. Miami's 2.66 expected goals at home looked like the engine of the game, while Charlotte's 1.29 away was the reason to lean low. The model put the chance of five or more goals near 35 percent, against a market price of 42.8 percent for the over. That gap made the under at -155 look like a modest edge. Edge is a funny word when the scoreboard keeps climbing.

We also flagged the risk that cost us. Both clubs still have seeding on the line for Decision Day, which argued against wholesale rotation, but nobody can know on the final day how much a coach will shuffle the lineup. We labeled confidence low for a reason. Six goals is still the tail we said was live, and a 35 percent event lands about a third of the time. This was one of those times.

So the lesson isn't that the model is broken. A one-in-three shot still hits, and this time it hit on the wrong side of our number. Back to the board next slate.