Sixers 112, Pistons 106: Our Pistons -2 Call Gets Run Down in Detroit

Philadelphia 112, Detroit 106. The 76ers walked into Detroit and walked out with the win, and we were on the wrong side of it. We had the Pistons -2, and a six-point loss means Detroit never got the cover. This one is a flat miss.

Our case going in rested on three things: Detroit's home efficiency edge (112.6 offensive rating against Philly's 108.1), a season series that had belonged to the Pistons, including a 106-93 win just ten days ago, and a fatigue angle from Philadelphia playing four games in seven days. Detroit also came in rolling, 6-1 in its last ten with three straight wins, and allowing 100.29 points per game in recent form against Philly's 105.12.

On paper, that stack looked right. The number that matters is 112. Philadelphia scored enough to beat a Pistons team we had graded as the better side at home, and the result says our read was off. Whether the fatigue angle was overstated, whether the efficiency numbers didn't translate to one night, or whether the absence of Jalen Duren mattered more than we credited, the scoreboard doesn't care about our reasoning.

Credit to the 76ers for the road win. The lesson for the desk: a home edge and a recent-form edge are not the same as a cover, especially in a tight spread where a few possessions decide everything. We'll take the loss and keep the receipts visible.