Sixers Win by 11 as Our Raptors +10.5 Pick Comes Up Short

The 76ers beat the Raptors 123-112, and our Raptors +10.5 pick missed. Philly won by 11, so it covered the spread by half a point. That's a painful miss, and it's worth owning.

The logic was that a near-even matchup on the raw numbers didn't justify a double-digit favorite. Philadelphia averages 110.2 points and allows 109.2, with a last-10 scoring margin around zero. Toronto came in at 116.6 points per game and 112.3 offensive efficiency. We figured home court, the Raptors' 2-4 record on this back-to-back stretch, and Scottie Barnes being out were worth roughly nine or ten points combined. Questionable tags on Joel Embiid and LeBron James added downside risk for the home side, and that made the points look like value.

Where it went wrong is that the spread wasn't as inflated as we thought. Philadelphia scored 123, well above its season average. Toronto managed 112, well short of the 116.6 it usually puts up. That gap between what the numbers predicted and what happened on the floor is what sank the ticket. The read on the number was defensible on paper, but the 76ers turned a supposed near coin flip into a comfortable win. We take the L and move on to the next slate.