Spurs 123, Warriors 85: our Warriors +12.5 pick got buried by a 38-point San Antonio win

Spurs 123, Warriors 85. The final margin was 38 points, and our Warriors +12.5 never had a real shot. We built the case on a fair Spurs edge of roughly 10 to 11 points, trimmed for the questionable tags on Fox and Vassell, and left about two points of cushion against a line that had already crept from -11.5 to -12.5. That cushion was supposed to protect us. It did not come close to covering a margin this wide.

Our reasoning held up on its own terms. We flagged the public money likely inflating the number on the Spurs' 10-game streak, and we pointed to the rest-based caution against laying double digits without a rest edge. Both were fair reads. Rest was even on paper, with both teams having two days off, but San Antonio's four games in seven days were a concern we flagged, not a result we can credit. The score says San Antonio controlled this one from wire to wire, and our projection simply undershot how far that control would stretch.

Curry being out was central to our Warriors case. Golden State could not keep pace, and 85 points tells the story without needing a dressed-up explanation.

We missed, and we own it. We'll keep publishing the reasoning so you can judge the process, not just the result. Next slate, same discipline.