Spurs survive by one, and our -11.5 pick goes down

Spurs 112, Mavericks 111. San Antonio got the win, but the -11.5 never had a chance. A one-point final against an eleven-and-a-half-point number is a gut punch, and we're not going to dress it up. Our pick missed.

The logic looked clean on paper. San Antonio was riding a five-game win streak while averaging 121.8 points per game. Dallas had dropped its last outing and is without Max Christie, who was putting up 12.3 points in an expanded role. Victor Wembanyama, at 25.7 per game, anchored a Spurs offense that had already rolled Dallas 122-106 ten days earlier. We also flagged San Antonio's pace edge (104.5 possessions to 100.4) and slightly better efficiency (112.5 to 111.5).

Where it broke down: the Spurs scored 112, well under the 121.8 they had been averaging during the streak. Dallas stayed in it all night, and the margin never got near double digits. The pace and efficiency numbers pointed to a comfortable cover, but the game finished as a coin flip, with San Antonio winning by a hair.

Credit where it's due: the Spurs won, and the earlier meeting was a real data point. But a win by one doesn't cash a spread of 11.5, and we own this miss. Next time we'll weigh the risk of a scoring dip much more heavily before we lay this many points.