Spurs Torch Dallas, DarkHorse Model Learns Humility in 16-Point Beatdown

So much for roster names versus current form. The Spurs waltzed into Dallas and dismantled the Mavericks 122-106, turning our +11.5 pick into expensive confetti. San Antonio's "early struggles" evaporated in a hurry—they shot the lights out, built a comfortable lead, and never let Dallas sniff a comeback. The 16-point margin wasn't just a cover; it was a statement that those 0-2 vibes were fool's gold.

Our model leaned hard on fatigue neutralization and small-sample offensive metrics, betting Dallas could keep it competitive on a back-to-back. Instead, the Mavericks looked gassed while the Spurs looked rejuvenated, almost like they'd been saving something for this spot. The principle about avoiding double-digit favorites? Valid in theory, humbling in practice when the favorite is actually better than their record suggested.

Credit where it's due: San Antonio's offense wasn't broken, just warming up. Dallas couldn't match the pace or the execution, and 11.5 points proved laughably insufficient. Sometimes the market knows something your spreadsheet doesn't. We took the bait on recency bias, and the Spurs made us pay. Chalk it up, learn it, move on. That's handicapping.