St. Louis Squanders Quality Edge as Minnesota Snaps Historic Home Drought

Well, that's what happens when you run into a team desperate enough to finally remember how to score at home. Minnesota United broke their eight-game home scoreless streak in emphatic fashion, taking down St. Louis CITY SC 3-2 and making our moneyline pick look foolish in the process.

All that beautiful data—the superior xG profile, the finishing above expected, the 4-0-1 form—went straight out the window at Allianz Field. St. Louis came in riding high with 3.2 goals per game over their last five, but Minnesota's winless-in-15 misery finally found its breaking point. When a team goes scoreless at home for that long, they're either due for an eruption or a complete collapse. We got the eruption.

Credit where it's due: Minnesota managed three goals despite being 13.20 goals below their expected output this season, which is almost poetic given how snakebitten they've been. St. Louis showed some fight with two goals of their own, but their road form couldn't overcome a Loons squad playing like they had nothing left to lose.

The market saw value in St. Louis and so did we. Sometimes the desperate team finds magic at exactly the wrong time for your bankroll. That's soccer.