Game Recap
The Clippers Beat the Pelicans by 16 and Our Pick Went Down With Them
The Clippers beat the Pelicans 139-123, and our Pelicans -1.5 pick is a clean MISS. This wasn't a backdoor cover or a late-garbage-time fluke. Los Angeles won by 16.
The case was built on efficiency and margin: New Orleans at 112.0 points per 100 possessions against 105.1 for the Clippers, and a +1.4 scoring margin over nine games versus -6.5 for Los Angeles over eight. Adjust for home court and we had the Pelicans winning by four or five. The final margin landed 16 points in the other direction.
The Clippers entered at 1-7 on a five-game losing streak, allowing 119.2 points a night during that skid. Nobody should pretend that stretch pointed to this result. Still, we flagged the rest gap, four days for Los Angeles against two for New Orleans, as a real risk, and we leaned on the trend anyway. We also flagged Trey Murphy III as day-to-day. The reasoning was sound on paper, but the number went the other way.
Clippers, you earned this one. Pelicans, you have some film to watch. On our side, the homework was done and the pick missed. That's the job, and the next slate is already on the board.