The Cowboys Beat The Colts 27-23, But Our Dallas -4.5 Pick Missed by Half a Point

Cowboys 27, Colts 23. Dallas won, but our Dallas -4.5 pick did not cash. The four-point margin fell a half-point short of the number, so this one goes in the loss column.

The read going in was that Dallas had the stronger season profile: a +0.76 per-game point differential against Indianapolis's -7.62 over eight games each, plus an offense averaging 27.38 points per game against a Colts defense allowing 27.75. Those numbers pointed to a comfortable cover, and Indianapolis's 20.13 scoring average suggested the Colts would struggle to keep pace.

Indianapolis kept it closer than that profile suggested. The Colts put up 23, well above their season scoring average, while Dallas's 27 came in above the 26.62 points per game its defense had been allowing. Neither side ran away with it, and the final margin landed just inside a field goal and a bit.

Where the pick went wrong was in treating a modest edge as a sure thing. We flagged that the line moved a point toward Indianapolis and the moneyline shifted, which is why we called this a small play. Small plays can still lose, and this one did by half a point.

Dallas wins, the Colts looked more competitive than their numbers implied, and the pick misses. On to the next one.