The Dolphins Scored 9, the Lions Won 19-9, and We Missed the Number

Miami had the home field, a 6.5-point cushion, and every reason to think a short-handed Detroit side would let them hang around. Instead the Dolphins never got the game they needed. Detroit won 19-9, and a ten-point margin blew right past the +6.5 we had on Miami. The pick is a MISS, and it is on us.

The problem was the scoring. Our projection had Detroit 27 and Miami 21, a neutral gap of about six that shrinks to 3.5-4.5 with the home crowd. Miami managed nine. That's the number that sank the ticket. When one side comes in more than a dozen points under the projection, no amount of home-field math saves you.

Detroit also finished under its own projected total, 19 against 27, so this was a lower-scoring game than the model expected, and the Lions controlled the scoreboard. We flagged the Lions' absences, Kerby Joseph, D.J. Reed, DJ Wonnum and Jack Campbell, plus Amon-Ra St. Brown's questionable ribs, as reasons to lean Miami. We also called the lean modest on purpose. A modest lean still loses when the home team scores nine.

Our recent spread results were already shaky, and this one adds to the pile. Miami is 1-6 and didn't look like a team that could cover a touchdown at home. We'll take the L, review the process, and bring the same scrutiny to next week's card.