The Hornets Beat Cleveland 124-112, and our Cavaliers -8.5 pick missed

Charlotte 124, Cleveland 112. That's bad news for anyone holding Cavaliers -8.5, us included. We missed this one, and it's worth being straight about why.

The case looked clean on paper: Cleveland's offensive efficiency of 113.6 against Charlotte's 98.1, and a Hornets team that had lost six straight and was scoring just 91.6 a night over its last five. Brandon Miller and Dennis Schroder were out, Moussa Diabate was questionable, and we projected Cleveland by 11 to 13 after home court. We flagged the Cavaliers' four games in seven days and the possible absence of Jarrett Allen as reasons to keep confidence moderate, not high.

The final number is the problem. Charlotte didn't just avoid the slide we expected; it scored 124 at home. Cleveland needed to win by nine or more to cover and finished on the wrong side of a twelve-point loss. A slump on one side of the ledger only helps if the other side holds up, and Charlotte's offense bounced back in a way our projection underweighted.

That's the honest read. The injury math and the Hornets' recent struggles pointed one direction, and the scoring went the other. We'll take the loss, note that the model undervalued Charlotte's ability to score through its absences, and move on to the next slate.