The Lakers Beat The Kings 116-103, And Our Kings +11.5 Pick Died On The Spot

Los Angeles beat Sacramento 116-103, and our Kings +11.5 pick missed. Sacramento needed to lose by 11 or fewer to cash, and the Lakers won by 13. That's a clean win, and it's the kind of result that makes a double-digit number look thin.

We liked the Kings to hang around for a few reasons. The market had Sacramento at a 51.1 percent fair probability, which suggested most of the talent gap was already priced in. Both teams had two days of rest, so there was no situational edge to lean on. And Acuff (26.1 PPG) and LaVine (23.4 PPG) gave the home side enough scoring punch to stay inside double digits. Sacramento did reach 103 points, but it wasn't enough to keep the margin under 12.

The Lakers had the bigger ceiling all along. Luka Doncic's 38.3 points per game and a 14.3-point efficiency edge (120.3 vs 106.0) were the reasons we respected Los Angeles. Our mistake was assuming that a Kings team sitting 0-2 at home would have enough to stay within 11 points on the road for the Lakers. They didn't.

We'll keep respecting the number when a big favorite gets a road-heavy spread, but this one just didn't go our way. Onto the next game.