The Paddock Report: Blazers take care of business at home, cash our +1.5

Portland 118, Oklahoma City 108. The Blazers didn't need a late miracle here. They won by ten at home, so the +1.5 was never in real danger. That's a clean hit, and we'll take it.

The pregame case was simple. Both clubs were on the second night of a back-to-back with four games in seven days, so fatigue cancelled out and we were left with the numbers. Portland's +6.6 scoring margin edged Oklahoma City's +6.3. Its offensive efficiency of 115.7 outpaced the Thunder's 110.9, and it played at a slightly faster pace, 103.2 possessions to 101.1. Add a couple of points for home court and a fair line sat closer to Portland -1 or -2 than to a pick'em. Getting 1.5 points on a team that had just beaten this same opponent 123-103 the night before was modest value, not a lock.

The final margin backed that read. Portland was the better side on paper, it was at home, and it delivered a double-digit win. The spread gave us a cushion, and the Blazers used it to make the pick look smart.

Credit where it's due, but don't mistake a hit for a masterpiece. The edge was small, and it could have gone the other way on one bad possession. This time it didn't, and the Blazers' efficiency gap did the heavy lifting.