The Paddock Report: Hawks 139, Wizards 132, and our Wizards +6.5 is dead

Atlanta wins 139-132, a seven-point margin that is exactly the number that sinks our Wizards +6.5. We missed, and we'll say it plainly.

The case going in was that the market was overpricing Atlanta after its 120-105 win two days earlier, that rest was a wash for both sides, and that Washington's slower pace (99.4 possessions to Atlanta's 105.2) would keep things tight. Pace was supposed to be the quiet advantage. Instead, the teams combined for 271 points, and Washington's 132 is a lot of scoring for a team we had pegged at 108.9 per game. Our model underrated how much offense this matchup was going to produce.

The edge was thin by design. Anthony Davis was questionable on our side and Jalen Johnson was questionable on theirs, and we built a small-edge call around that uncertainty. We don't have a full availability report or box score breakdown in front of us, so we're not going to blame one injury or lineup decision for this result. What we can say is that the number sat right where a close game would have lived, and Atlanta got the seven it needed.

One miss doesn't rewrite the process, but it does tell us the Hawks-Wizards pace and efficiency numbers deserve a second look before we lean on them again. Next.