The Paddock Report: Nuggets 128, Raptors 109, and our Raptors +4.5 pick missed

Denver 128, Toronto 109. This was not close, and our Raptors +4.5 pick missed badly. Toronto lost by 19, more than four times the points we gave them.

We liked Toronto's 119.1 points per game and faster pace against a Nuggets team that had been giving up 129.0 points per game in three home outings. On paper, that suggested a game the Raptors could keep within a possession. Toronto scored 109, well below their season average, and Denver's 128 was enough to pull away comfortably.

The mistake was leaning too hard on a three-game home sample for Denver's defense and on a 1-2 home record. Three games is a small window. We acknowledged Denver's home-court and altitude advantages, then talked ourselves past them. Toronto's recent form, 117.4 points per game over their last five and a win in their most recent game, wasn't enough to offset that edge.

The market's 51.1/48.9 split made the spread look like an easy grab. In hindsight, a near-coinflip line signals a thin edge, and thin edges disappear quickly when one side simply outplays the other.

Credit Denver for taking care of business at home. Our end of this one is simple: the pick was wrong, and we'll put more weight on larger samples next time.