The Paddock Report: Rockets 115, Warriors 108, and our +6.5 pick is dead

Houston 115, Golden State 108. The Rockets did what home teams are supposed to do, and a seven-point final margin was just enough to bury our Warriors +6.5 pick.

Our case was that this line was inflated. Both teams entered with nearly identical scoring margins (Houston +9.1, Golden State +9.2) and matching rest. The number had jumped from -5.5, and home court is worth about three points, so 6.5 looked generous. We liked Golden State's offense, Stephen Curry's 30.6 points per game, and an 8-game win streak riding into Houston. We also flagged the road defense, which had allowed 121.5 points per game away from home. Allowing 115 in this one doesn't help that argument.

The scoreboard is blunt. The Warriors lost by seven, and our ticket needed them to lose by six or fewer. Half a point was the difference, and it went against us. We were right that the spread was tight. We were wrong to think the Warriors could hold it that close on the road, and the streak ended with the loss.

The takeaway isn't that the analysis fell apart. The efficiency gap is still small, the margins are still even, and the bench concerns are still on the table. But when a line sits this close to the final margin, a half-point deserves more respect than we gave it. Next time we'll be more careful about how much a number is inflated versus how much it can hold up.