The Suns Won, But the Number Sank Us

Phoenix beat Charlotte 101-96, which is a win in the standings and a miss on our ticket. We took Suns -6.5, and a five-point margin doesn't cover it. We missed, and it stings a little.

The read looked clean on paper. Brandon Miller and Dennis Schroder were both out, leaving about 52 expected minutes of Charlotte production gone. Phoenix also held the efficiency edge, 112.6 points per 100 possessions to the Hornets' 100.8, and had two days of rest against a Charlotte team that had been scoring around 98 a night. The thesis was simple: the Suns would pull away.

They didn't. Phoenix scored 101, well below the 112.8 points per game it averages, so the offense we were counting on to create a cushion never got there. Charlotte finished with 96, a bit under its recent scoring pace, so the depleted Hornets didn't put up the kind of total that would have made this a shootout, but the Suns also didn't separate themselves enough to clear the number.

Phoenix deserves credit for the win. We deserve blame for the pick. Shorthanded teams can still keep a spread closer than the talent gap suggests, and a rested favorite with an efficiency edge still has to score to cover. This time it didn't, and we're logging that as a lesson for the next one.