Thunder bury Wizards 114-75 as our +11.5 pick misses by 27.5

Thunder 114, Wizards 75. Oklahoma City didn't just beat Washington. They won by 39, and our Wizards +11.5 pick was dead long before the final horn. This one missed, and it missed badly.

The setup looked tidy on paper. Both teams were on three days' rest, their efficiency numbers were nearly identical, and the Thunder were missing Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams, about 54 minutes of expected rotation time. We figured an 11.5-point spread asked Oklahoma City to win by more than their 8-game sample supported. We were wrong about the size of the gap. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, averaging 30.1 points per game and 4-0 at home, made those absences look far less important than we expected.

Washington was without Anthony Davis, and our case for a cover rested on their 47.6 percent shooting and 24.75 assists per game. Scoring 75 points is the opposite of what that case needed. Whatever the Wizards' offense was supposed to be, it never showed up on the scoreboard.

What we misjudged was how much the Thunder's top-end talent could cover for their injuries. Depth losses hurt less when the best player on the floor is playing like that. Eight-game samples are small, and we called this a small play for a reason. Small plays can still lose big, and this one did.