Thunder Crush Grizzlies 128-97 as Our +3.5 Pick Misses Badly

Well, that one aged like milk. Oklahoma City beat Memphis 128-97, a 31-point margin that buried our Grizzlies +3.5 pick. We missed, and we missed badly.

Our case rested on the scoring profile. Memphis averaged 120.5 points to Oklahoma City's 110.0, owned the better offensive rating (116.3 to 109.1), shot 47.3 percent from the field against 44.0, and held edges on the glass and in assists. On paper, the home team looked like the side that should keep this close. On the floor, none of that held up. We called Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's name-value premium a mispricing. Tonight it looked more like a fair price for what the Thunder actually delivered.

We also leaned on the recent-form read, which said Oklahoma City's 112.0 points for and 116.2 allowed over their last five looked shakier than their season résumé. The Thunder scored 128 and held Memphis to 97. That is not a shaky team. Our sample read was wrong, and the scoring-profile edge we trusted did not translate into a result.

The rest was identical, as we noted, so there is no schedule excuse to hide behind. We had a thesis, the thesis failed, and the number was right this time. Back to the drawing board, and we'll be sharper on the next one.