Tigers Ace Skubal Shelled as Orioles Rally Past Detroit 10-9

So much for that elite pitching advantage. The Orioles torched Tarik Skubal and the Tigers 10-9 in a slugfest that made our -174 Tigers pick look foolish from the jump. Baltimore's bats woke up exactly when we bet they'd stay quiet, turning that supposed 1.47 ERA gap into kindling.

Detroit actually kept pace offensively against Trevor Rogers, who predictably struggled, but here's the problem: when you pay -174 for an ace, you need him to dominate. Skubal didn't. The Orioles' "below-average offense" hung nine runs on Detroit pitching and grabbed the lead when it mattered. Baltimore's superior recent form (that 10-5 stretch we acknowledged but dismissed) proved more predictive than Skubal's season-long metrics.

This one stings because the logic wasn't terrible—elite starter, home field, opponent's rotation weakness. But baseball's a funny game. The Orioles showed up ready to rake, and when your ace can't shut down a lineup you're counting on him to stifle, that -174 price becomes an anchor real quick. Sometimes the team playing better baseball just wins, regardless of whose name is on the mound. The Tigers kept it close offensively but couldn't get the final stop. Tough beat, but that's why they play nine innings.