Warriors bury Heat 120-100 and cash our -7.5 pick easily

Golden State 120, Miami 100. The Warriors didn't just win, they buried the Heat by 20 and cashed our Warriors -7.5 pick with room to spare.

This is exactly the spot we flagged. Miami was playing the second night of a back-to-back while Golden State had three days of rest, and that edge showed up where it counts. The Heat managed just 100 points against a Warriors defense that entered the night allowing 114.6 per game. Miami had been scoring 123.4 per game over its last five, and it was nowhere near that tonight.

Golden State's efficiency profile, 116.9 offensive rating against Miami's 112.0, was the backbone of the case, and a 20-point margin suggests that gap was real, not a fluke. The Warriors came in riding a 5-0 streak and a +11.4 scoring margin, and they kept that momentum going.

The pick was never a lock. We flagged the Heat's recent scoring and the absence of Gui Santos as reasons to keep confidence moderate, and Miami's offense didn't show up when it mattered. Still, a 7.5-point line already priced in a lot of Golden State's edge, and the Warriors blew past it.

Hit. Clean, convincing, and exactly the kind of result the situational framework is built to find. Now let's see if the Warriors can keep it going.