Warriors bury Pelicans 138-87 and our -9.5 pick cashes easily

Golden State won 138-87, a 51-point margin that didn't just clear the Warriors -9.5 number, it blew past it. Our Warriors -9.5 pick hits, and it's not close.

The case going in was straightforward. Golden State was rested after two days off and hosted a Pelicans side playing the second night of a back-to-back, their fourth game in seven nights. Our model had the Warriors around 11 points better, with the scoring margins pointing the same direction (+5.0 for GSW, -0.6 for NOP) and home court adding to it. We flagged it as a modest edge, not a lock, and recommended a small play on the -106 side because the samples are only 9-10 games deep and we don't pretend otherwise.

Did the thin edge deserve a bigger bet? Nobody gets to argue that after 138 points, but we'd rather be honest about the process than take a victory lap. A model that projects 11 and gets 51 hasn't nailed the margin. It's a reminder that variance cuts both ways, and that a rested home team facing a tired road team can run away with it. New Orleans scoring 87 tells you how that went for them.

Going forward, the sizing discipline stays. One blowout doesn't rewrite a 9-10 game sample, and the next tired road team will get the same conservative stake. Bank the win and move on.