Whitecaps 2, CF Montréal 0: Under 3.5 cashes as Montréal's attack stays silent

Vancouver took care of business in Montréal with a 2-0 win, and the scoreline matched what our model expected: not much. Two goals total, nothing for the home side, and the under 3.5 pick lands as a HIT.

The projection leaned on a simple idea. Our blended venue and season numbers had this game around 3.1 total goals, with Vancouver away near 1.6 to 1.7 and Montréal at home near 1.4 to 1.5. We pegged four-plus goals at roughly 37 percent, while the market was asking 45.5 percent for the over. That gap was the whole thesis, and the game backed it up.

The bigger reason to like the under was Montréal's attack. It had produced just 0.96 xGF across its last eight and was averaging 0.4 goals per game over the last five. A cold attack playing at home against a side that had already locked up the conference top spot is a recipe for a low-scoring night, and Montréal did nothing to suggest otherwise.

The caveat was Decision Day rotation. Vancouver's top spot was already secure, so any changes to its lineup were always the wild card. That same uncertainty is why our confidence stayed low going in. A win is a win, but this was a pick we respected more than we loved.