Wizards Fall 120-105 to Hawks, Our +2.5 Pick Misses

Atlanta went into Washington and took care of business, winning 120-105. Our Wizards +2.5 ticket is dead, and a 15-point final margin is not a close game.

The pick rested on home-court value, Washington's more efficient offense, and a Hawks defense that had been leaking points on the road and over their last five games. On paper those were reasonable reads, and the line move toward Atlanta looked like an overreaction. The game didn't play out as the tight, home-dog-friendly affair we expected. Atlanta put up 120, well past what the pick anticipated, while Washington finished at 105, below the 108.33 points per game the Wizards had been averaging.

The Wizards never got the efficiency bump we were counting on, and the Hawks' defensive issues didn't keep this within a possession or two. Being wrong on the spread is part of the business, and the line move that drew us in wasn't baseless. But the efficiency edge we highlighted didn't turn into points on the board.

Next time Washington shows up on our board, the question is sharper: is a home underdog's cushion big enough to survive a team that simply outplays it? Tonight, the answer was no.