Wolves Bury Mavericks 133-94 as Timberwolves -5.5 Cashes Easily

Minnesota didn't just beat Dallas, it took the Mavericks apart. The Timberwolves won 133-94, a 39-point margin that buried the 5.5-point number we backed.

The scoreboard makes the gap plain. Dallas came in averaging 114.9 points a game and managed only 94. Minnesota, which had been putting up 118.1 a game, went well past that mark. A spread that tight looks like a rounding error next to a result like this.

Our case rested on a modest edge: Minnesota's +11.1 per-game margin against Dallas's +4.6, a 4-1 home record, home-court value, a rest advantage with Dallas playing its third game in seven days, and the absence of Dereck Lively II. We priced the fair number around 6.5 to 7.5 and sized the play moderately because the samples are small and the price was -115. Those were sound reasons to back Minnesota. Nobody on our desk expected a 39-point blowout, and the final score can't tell us which factor mattered most. It only tells us the Wolves were far better on this night.

Verdict: HIT. Timberwolves -5.5 cashed comfortably. Credit where it's due, and a reminder that a moderate edge can still pay off in a big way.