Wolves survive New Orleans 115-109 and cover the -4.5 we liked

Minnesota 115, New Orleans 109. The Timberwolves won by six, which was enough to cash our -4.5 and keep The Stable's bankroll talk pleasant for another night.

We liked Minnesota for the cleaner profile: 114.7 offensive efficiency against New Orleans' 112.1, and a defense that holds opponents to 107.56 points per game while the Pelicans allow 119.25. We also gave Minnesota the rebounding edge (49.2 to 44.9) and the turnover edge (14.9 to 16.8). The fourth game in seven days was a small fatigue note, and the pick leaned on the idea that the market had already priced in Edwards' absence.

The score says the read held. Six points is a comfortable margin, but it is not a blowout, and that matters. Our cushion was only 1.5 points above the number, so this was a lean that could have gone either way in the final minutes. New Orleans hung around long enough to make it interesting, which is exactly what a team with the weakest defensive unit on the floor tends to do.

Was this a sharp win or a lucky one? Honestly, the final score alone cannot settle that. We can say the outcome matched the efficiency and defensive profile we flagged, and that the Pelicans' defense was the soft spot we targeted. We will take the cover and the validation without overselling a six-point game.

Discuss below. Did you back Minnesota, or did you fade the spread because you thought the Pelicans would keep it close?