Wolves Walk Into Houston and Bury Our Rockets -8.5 Pick

Minnesota 117, Houston 107. Our Rockets -8.5 pick missed, and we're not going to dress that up. Houston needed to win by more than nine at home to cash, and it lost by ten.

The case we made rested on Houston's efficiency edge, 120.8 points per game offensively against Minnesota's 114.1, plus a defense that had allowed just 103.4 over its last five. We also flagged that Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo were out for Minnesota, leaving LaMelo Ball and a thin supporting cast. Ball and that cast still put up 117. The defense we leaned on didn't hold for the number that mattered.

The final score is the only thing we can grade with confidence, and it says our read on depth was too generous to the Rockets. Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun were supposed to anchor a balanced attack, and Houston couldn't reach 110 at home. Our home-court argument looked airtight on paper, and it didn't translate.

The line move from -9.5 to -8.5 looked like value. It turned out to be a half-point that cost us the whole ticket. We take the loss, we own the reasoning, and we'll grade ourselves the same way on the next one.